Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 121.304948 139.814454 160.908764 186.877939 218.192355 254.991717 301.889716
2025-12-07 97.302890 120.476090 149.365585 188.561425 241.187908 310.630348 411.301125
2025-12-14 83.625933 109.046837 142.899182 192.341882 264.565847 369.295428 538.709104
2025-12-21 72.968657 98.998579 135.479366 191.972169 280.366520 419.119457 666.090433
2025-12-28 68.209222 95.993021 136.833975 203.706127 315.598566 505.770228 879.605312
2026-01-04 63.723712 92.534170 136.665173 212.560422 347.449383 594.178465 1127.527561
2026-01-11 59.597236 88.946616 135.567182 219.355108 376.728337 685.114884 1416.077601
2026-01-18 55.465968 84.765732 132.804733 222.571830 399.771588 769.755632 1726.994608
2026-01-25 51.417937 80.211425 128.744150 222.615250 416.392185 845.262430 2050.742254
2026-02-01 47.155015 74.823612 122.546389 217.569844 421.362615 895.851898 2332.180804
2026-02-08 43.373441 69.880314 116.556986 211.983898 423.968232 941.520485 2623.826382
2026-02-15 40.136020 65.582406 111.262977 206.993994 426.868536 988.808851 2948.509761
2026-02-22 39.400570 65.763106 114.490117 220.554060 477.133561 1182.239109 3941.649196
2026-03-01 37.394274 63.428890 112.634306 222.925969 500.822717 1310.309877 4797.350382
2026-03-08 35.825551 61.757496 111.881407 227.634540 531.813321 1473.913702 5980.067284
2026-03-15 33.898520 59.222689 109.094998 227.192116 548.842535 1599.565927 7121.096452
2026-03-22 33.486584 59.585658 112.324419 241.648016 612.153438 1919.286618 9832.704799
2026-03-29 32.756766 59.241808 114.002765 252.582091 668.453632 2245.729613 13225.980756
2026-04-05 31.857158 58.467303 114.646355 260.987823 719.567324 2583.271647 17506.350433
2026-04-12 30.693327 57.043960 113.681843 264.971759 757.458388 2887.406554 22347.173492
2026-04-19 29.350258 55.134599 111.411237 265.025559 781.963464 3144.844557 27546.055384
2026-04-26 27.707777 52.465932 107.125744 258.778052 782.163261 3279.053992 31726.986626
2026-05-03 26.152087 49.879137 102.810653 251.869622 778.403974 3392.648559 36138.297909